إيران وإستراتيجية ترامب الجديدة ....... د. نبيل العتوم

   أخيراً وكما كان متوقعاً، أعلنَ الرئيس الأميركي ( دونالد ترامب ) عن إستراتيجية أميركية جديدة تجاه إيران، ناقلاً ملف «الاتفاق النووي» برمته إلى  الكونغرس ليدرس كيفية تعديله، وإجراء تعديلات مقترحة عليه .

        لم يخرج الرئيس (ترامب) عن المتوقّع. فهو لم «يمزّق» الاتفاق النووي كما كان يهدّد في حملته الانتخابية، وفي حرب التويتر  التي شنّها، ولم ينفذ ما أطلقه  ” العاصفة “،  لكنه في الوقت عينه، فتح الباب أمام إلغائه، من خلال عدم تصديقه على التزام إيران بالاتفاق في حال لم يقم  الكونغرس بالدور المطلوب منه .

        ما لم يقله (ترامب) في إستراتيجيته  أنّ الحرس الثوري كياناً إرهابياً، بل نقل مهمة ذلك إلى وزارة الخزانة، وهذا له دلالاته وأهدافه ودوافعه، مع أنَّ المفارقةَ الغريبة العجيبة  الأولى التي تتضح من خلال هذه الإستراتيجية  أنَّ (ترامب) يعتبر إيران أكبر راعية للإرهاب في العالم، وكرّر هذه العبارة أكثر من / 38/ مرّة منذُ تولية  دفةَ الأمور في واشنطن، أمّا المفارقة  الثانية لم  يشر (ترامب) في إستراتيجيته إلى حلفائه وشركائه الغربيين، وهم الذينَ طالما وقفوا إلى جانب أمريكا في سياستها، المفارقة الثالثة:  كانَ الردّ الأوروبيّ جاهزاً، ومعداً مسبقاً عقب خطاب ترامب مباشرة، وهذا يعكسُ ليس حجم  عدم التوافق مع الإستراتيجية الأميركية، بل يعكسُ درجةَ المصالح الاقتصادية التي باتتْ تحكمُ العلاقات الأوروبية الإيرانيّة، ولو على حساب مصالح وأمن شعوب  دول المنطقة، في الوقت الذي باتت معه إيران فعلياً أحد أكبر مصادر التهديد في الشرق الأوسط؛ ومن المفترض أنْ يدفعَ  هذا الموقف إلى أهمية مراجعة شاملة  للعالم العربي لعلاقاته مع  أوروبا، التي لا تعيرُ اهتماماً لدرجة ما باتتْ تعاني دول المنطقة وشعوبها من الإرهاب الإيراني  .

         ما قالته أوروبا وروسيا والصين يحملُ نبرةَ التّحدي لأميركا والعرب على حدّ سواء، من خلال  اعتبار الاتفاق النووي بين إيران والقوى الست الكبرى، أقوي من أن يمزّقه ( ترامب) كما وعد مراراً، حيثُ كانَ رفضُ منسقة السياسة الخارجية للاتحاد الأوروبي (فدريكا موغريني)، المس بالاتفاق ملفتاً عندما أكدت أنَّ الرئيسَ الأمريكيّ يملكُ صلاحيات واسعة؛ إلا أنّه لا يملكُ القدرةَ على إلغاء الاتفاق مع عدم وجود أيّ بديل للاتفاق النووي الدوليّ، حتى تجاهلتْ سؤالاً حولَ أهمية إجراء تعديلات حول الاتفاق للخروج من الأزمة الحالية، ولم يقف الأمر هنا، بل تجاوز البعض أن ما تفوه به ( ترامب) سيُحدثُ شرخاً كبيراً في علاقات أمريكا مع حلفائها الأوروبيين، وكانَ وزيرُ خارجية ألمانيا (زيغمار غابرييل) أكثرَ صراحةً من الجميع عندما أعلنَ أن عدم تصديق (ترامب) على التزام إيران بالاتفاق النوويّ سيقرّبُ الأوروبيين من روسيا والصين، وسيدفعهم إلى اتخاذ موقف مشترك معهم.

          هنا  نُذكر أنَّ الأوروبيين تحديداً قد نسوا، أوتناسوا  أنَّ  طهرانَ فعلياً قد استغلت الاتفاق النووي ووظفته كغطاء لتهديد الأمن الإقليمي والعربي، مما منحها  غطاءً وهامشاً واسعاً للعبث الأمني والتخريب من خلال تشكيل الخلايا النائمة، وإرسال مرتزقتها ومليشياتها حتى يعملوا ذبحاً وقتلاً في سوريا والعراق واليمن …. والقائمة تطول .

        أمّا ردُّ إيران على خطاب (ترامب)، فكانَ يعكس ردّ فعل دولة مأزومة، و لم يجدْ بينَ دول العالم سوى دول أوروبا إلى جانب (روسيا والصين ) من يدعمها في موقفها الشاذّ من الاتفاق النووي الذي يراعي مصالحها الخاصة الضيقة، بينما العالم مع ضرورة إدخال تعديلات صارمة على الاتفاق النووي، بحيثُ تُلجمُ الصَّلفَ والعدوان الإيراني .

المؤكد  الأول : أنّ إيرانَ  ستعملُ على تفكيك التحالفات الأوربية مع أميركا  فيما يخصُّ الملف النووي الإيراني، والسعي لعدم إدخال أيّة تعديلاتٍ عليه .

-المؤكد الثاني : أنَّ طهرانَ ماضيةٌ في سياساتها العدوانية، والسعي لبناء ترسانة صاروخية، وتوسيع قاعدة إنتاج أسلحة الدمار الشامل، مع الاستمرار بسياسة الخداع النووي، وتهديد الأمن الإقليمي برمته، مع الحرص على عدم الخروج من الاتفاق النووي مهما كانتِ الأسباب .

المؤكد الثالث :  أنّ المرشدَ والحرس الثوريّ وخلفهم (روحاني) سيكونُ  لديهم أزمة داخلية متفاقمة مع التداعيات الاقتصادية والعسكرية والإستراتيجية بعد الاستدارة الأميركية الأخيرة، وسيكونُ التغطية على فشل الدولة الإيرانية الذريع  من خلال توسل النظام الإيراني نحو دبلوماسية تضخيم المخاطر الخارجية التي تبرع دولة الولي الفقيه في توظيفها دومًا، لامتصاص نقمة الشارع، هذا علاوة على أن هناك أطراف داخلية إيرانية  شعبية كبيرة وواسعة  رافضة لسياسات النظام التي أدت إلى تفاقم مشاكله، وأسهمت في  العودة للمربع “صفر” بعد إهدار مقدرات الدولة وثرواتها  والتفريط  بمصالح  الشعب المغلوب على أمره  بفعل مغامرات النظام  العبثية وغير المسؤولة .

-المؤكد الرابع : أنَّ حلفاءَ واشنطن الأساسيين  سيتحملونَ عبئاً مهماً في إستراتيجية  المواجهة مع إيران؛ خاصّة أنَّ  مسودة الإستراتيجية  الأميركية من تؤكد أنّ على واشنطن  أنْ تتجنب الالتزامات العسكرية المكلفة مع إيران لوحدها، وهذا لنْ يتأتى إلا من خلال شراكات مع حلفاءها في المنطقة .

       لاشكّ بأنَّ  الإستراتيجية  الأميركية  تتضمنُ خطوطاً عريضة، ولا تقدّمُ  في الوقت نفسه أيّة تفاصيل  أو آليات تُذكر عن كيفية ترجمة  الولايات المتحدة ذلك إلى خطوات إجرائية عملية، كذلك لم تتحدث  الإستراتيجية الجديدة بشكلٍ واضح ٍ عن الترويج لفكرة دعم أية عملية انتقال داخلي للإطاحة بالنظام الديكتاتوري الإيراني، وعن كيفية توظيف  واشنطن  أدوات ”القوة الناعمة والصلبة “ الأخرى، لدعم مطالب الشعب الإيراني   .

هذا المقال يعبر عن رأي كاتبه ولا يعبر بالضرورة عن رأي مجموعة التفكير الاستراتيجي

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