" العراق ما بعد داعش : المعالجات والاحتمالات المستقبلية"

يواجه العراق في مرحلة ما بعد داعش تحديات كبيرة على مختلف المستويات وذلك نتيجة لسيطرة تنظيم داعش على المحافظات العراقية لمدة تقارب ثلاث اعوام، وبالرغم من نجاح الحكومة العراقية من تحرير معظم المناطق التي كانت خاضعة لسيطرة تنظيم داعش الارهابي بمساعدة وتعاون التحالف الدولي الذي تقوده الولايات المتحدة الامريكية، بيد ان المحافظات المحررة  تواجه مجموعة تحديات ومشكلات على مختلف المستويات بسبب الانعكاسات السلبية التي افرزتها مرحلة داعش في العراق، والتي ادت الى تدمير البنى التحتية للمحافظات العراقية واستنزاف مواردها وامكاناتها الاقتصادية، الى جانب المشكلات التي ظهرت في الاطار الاجتماعي والمتمثلة بانتشار مظاهر العنف والتطرف والآثار والممارسات السلبية التي تؤدي الى التأثير في مستقبل التنشئة الاجتماعية وانهيار منظومة القيم الاخلاقية فضلاً عن انتشار البطالة والتخلف وتدهور المستوى التعليمي.

 وتمثل خلاصة النقاشات والدراسات التي تبلورت عند نخبة من الباحثين والمهتمين بالشأن السياسي المشاركين في الندوة العلمية  "عراق ما بعد داعش: المعالجات والاحتمالات المستقبلية" والتي تناولت عدة محاور منها مستقبل الأمن والاستقرار في المحافظات المحررة والدور المستقبلي للحشد الشعبي في المحافظات المحررة ، ومستقبل الخيار الفدرالي في تلك المحافظات ، ويمكن القول ان الحشد الشعبي الذي تشكل بناءً على فتوى المرجعية الدينية بالجهاد الكفائي بعد احتلال داعش للمحافظات العراقية والذي ظهر للوهلة الاولى على شكل مقاتلين متطوعين غير منتظمين، ثم ما لبث ان تحول الى مجموعة فصائل مسلحة مرتبطة بالأحزاب والمؤسسات والحركات السياسية الشيعية والذي اضحى فيما بعد مؤسسة حكومية مرتبطة بالقائد العام للقوات المسلحة، من خلال تشريع صادر عن مجلس النواب يتيح له حرية الحركة والانتشار، ونتيجة لهيمنة احدى دول الجوار على المشهد السياسي العراقي فقد تمكنت من توظيف ذلك لتنفيذ مشروعها الاستراتيجي بإخضاع العراق كجزء اساسي من مد النفوذ الايراني الى المنطقة العربية والشرق الاوسط عبر ما اصطلح عليه "الهلال الشيعي" او "الحزام الجيوبوليتيكي"، فعلى الرغم من الجهود التي بذلت من مقاتلين الحشد الشعبي في تحرير المناطق المحتلة من قبل داعش، بيد ان ذلك لم يمنع التوجهات  الاستراتيجية الايرانية من توظيف ذلك لتحقيق عدة وظائف عسكرية وامنية واقتصادية، منها الاستغلال في عمليات التغيير الديموغرافي التي تجري في المناطق المحررة، الى جانب السيطرة على الطريق الحيوي الذي يربط النفوذ الايراني بسوريا من خلال منطقة النخيب ومنفذ الوليد دون المرور بالطريق الدولي الذي قطعه تنظيم داعش، فضلاً عن استعماله لتهديد الامن القومي السعودي عبر نشر قواته بالقرب من الحدود السعودية مع محافظة كربلاء واحكام طوق الحدود الشيعية التي تحاول ايران فرضه على السعودية من خلال حدود شيعية للسعودية من جهة اليمن واخرى من العراق.

اما فيما يتعلق بالجدل حول مستقبل الخيار الفدرالي في المحافظات المحررة فأنه يستمر مستقبلاً بسبب اصرار القوى السياسية في هذه المحافظات على المطالبة به بالرغم من الموقف الايراني الرافض التي تعبر عنه القوى السياسية الشيعية المهيمنة على القرار السياسي العراقي، فالمشروع وفقاً لوجهة نظر مؤيده لا يزال يجد دعماً شعبياً واسعاً من ابناء هذه المحافظات الذين واجهوا ويلات تنظيم داعش والحروب التي تلتها، فضلاً عن عدم ثقتهم بمصداقية الحكومة لفرض دعائم الامن والاستقرار في مرحلة ما بعد داعش، الى جانب وجود تعهدات اقليمية من دول عربية وخليجية وقوى دولية بمساعدة هذه المحافظات في عمليات الاعمار واعادة البناء، لاسيما في ظل سياسات الانفتاح العربية التي تحاول القوى العربية الفاعلة الدخول في المشهد السياسي العراقي لإحداث توازن مع التدخل الايراني – التركي في العراق، وعلى الجانب الاخر فإن الرفض الايراني لمشروع الاقليم السني يعود لمجموعة دوافع بعضها يتعلق بالعامل الجيوبوليتيكي لان الاقليم السني سيكون حاجزا طبيعيا عن حلفاء ايران في سوريا ولبنان، وعامل اخر يتعلق بالداخل الايراني لان منح السنة اقليم اداري خاص بهم يشجع النزعة الانفصالية لدى السنة والكرد في ايران ويحدث خللاً بينياً في الدولة الايرانية، فضلاَ عن عامل استراتيجي اخر يتمثل في محاولة ايران السيطرة على العراق بشكل كامل لان ايران تريد عراقاً ضعيفاً مفككاً وليس على شكل اقاليم اثنوغرافية يصعب السيطرة عليها.

اما فيما يتعلق بالانعكاسات الاجتماعية والاقتصادية لسيطرة تنظيم داعش على المحافظات العراقية، فتظهر لنا مجموعة تحديات اجتماعية مركبة ومعقدة منها على سبيل المثال لا الحصر : (انتشار الفكر المتطرف – الارتداد عن الدين والمذهب – تغليب ثقافة العنف على الحوار- هجرة الكفاءات والنخب – الهجرات الجماعية – ظهور الجرائم والانحرافات في المجتمع – النزاعات العشائرية بين معارضي داعش والمتعاطفين معهم - تدني الثقافة المجتمعية – الفساد الاخلاقي وانهيار القيم والقدوات- انهيار التعايش السلمي- فقدان  الاقليات الثقة في الاندماج بالمجتمع ....... وغيرها)، وتظهر في الجانب الاخر انعكاسات وتحديات اقتصادية تتمثل في ( تدمير البنى التحتية – تغيير الوظائف الاقتصادية لبعض المحافظات مثل سرقة وتدمير مصفى بيجي والذي تتهم به جهات طائفية متنفذة - الخسائر في رأس المال البشري – صعوبات اعادة الاعمار – ارتفاع نسبة البطالة .....وغيرها)، ويمكن القول ان ابرز التحديات التي تواجه مستقبل امن واستقرار المحافظات المحررة هي مسألة الدوافع و المحفزات التي تساعد في ظهور تنظيم داعش من جديد، وليس المقصود تنظيم داعش نفسه، وانما بتسميات اخرى وانما ظهور  اجيال جديدة من الفكر التطرف في هذه المحافظات ومن الاسباب التي تؤدي الى ذلك : ((غياب روح التعاون وانعدام الثقة بين المدنيين والاجهزة الامنية - ضعف الولاء الوطني لدى الاجهزة الامنية- انتشار السلاح داخل المجتمع وتوزيعه لمجاميع وكيانات خارج ارادة المنظومة الحكومية- الاستمرار في تدوير شخوص العملية السياسية الفاسدين- ارتفاع معدلات البطالة والفقر والجوع- تصاعد معدلات الفساد المالي والاداري- ضعف دور المؤسسة الدينية ومؤسسات التربية والتعليم عن القيام بدورها في التوجيه والنصح والارشاد، وفي ترسيخ ثقافة التسامح وحب الوطن والولاء له - ضعف الدور الرقابي للمؤسسات الاعلامية، وتظليل اتجاهات الرأي العام وفقاً  لمصلحة الجهات التي تمولها- تهاون القضاء في محاسبة المجرمين والفاسدين والتستر على جرائمهم)) .

 

في المقابل تبرز ازاء ذلك مجموعة من التوصيات والمعالجات التي يجب ان تسهم في القضاء على هذه التحديات ومنها : (( ان ضرورات المرحلة القادمة تتطلب بروز قيادةٍ سياسيةٍ جديدةٍ، تحمل فكر بناء دولة وتعمل على إرساء مفاهيمٍ سياسيةٍ جديدة، ولكي تنجح في عملها وتثبت صدق ولائها وانتمائها لمحفظتها، عليها ان تبتعد عن النزعة المصلحية وتعمل على تحشيد كل الطاقات وتكثف جهودها بالتنسيق مع الحكومة المركزية من اجل ان تحصد اكبر قدر من العوائد- المؤسسات الدينية والتعليمية والتربوية مطالبة بمضاعفة جهودها وتسخير كل طاقاتها من اجل زرع روح المواطنة وخلق روح الانسجام والتعايش السلمي بين اطياف مجتمع المحافظات المحررة- يجب ان تكون هناك خطط متكاملة وليست اقتراحات فقط وأفكاراً ترقيعية لإعادة بناء وتأهيل الدمار في المناطق المدمرة، لأجل الاستفادة من المبالغ وأن لا تدخل في ابواب الهدر والسرقات المالية وكسب ثقة الدول المحيطة في اعطائها لتلك المنح المالية-  ان يتم دمج الجهد الحكومي للوزارات مع القطاع الخاص بالإضافة الى الشركات الاستثمارية التي تدخل من قبل الدول المانحة لإعادة اعمار المناطق المتضررة- ضرورة تعاقد صندوق اعمار المحافظات المتضررة مع شركة دولية متخصصة في مجال تقييم الاضرار من اجل كسب ثقة الدول التي ستقوم بدعم العراق، لأن ارقام تلك الشركة ستكون دقيقة ومعتبرة لدى الجهات الدولية فضلا عن كونها جهة محايدة- ينبغي فسح المجال أمام ابناء المحافظات المحررة للانخراط في الاجهزة الامنية ولكي يمارسوا دور اكبر في عملية الحفاظ على امن واستقرار مدنهم. 

هذا المقال يعبر عن رأي كاتبه ولا يعبر بالضرورة عن رأي مجموعة التفكير الاستراتيجي

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